One of the books I think about often is Factfulness by Hans Rosling. One of the lessons in that book is not to assume you understand a trend by looking only at a portion of a graph.
When we only have a few data points, we often assume that the relationship between them is going to continue. So if things are trending downward, we assume that downward trend will persist into the future.
Notice that assumption, then call it into question. Why?
- The pattern may already be knowable — so don’t assume the small portion you’re seeing is true of the whole
- We don’t know what the future holds — so don’t exaggerate your power of prediction
- Most of the time, we can’t accurately infer the future from the past — so don’t assume the current pattern will automatically hold
- You likely have influence on the future shape of the graph — so don’t treat the graph like a fixed entity being handed to you
I’m living an example of this right now. Last year, I invited people to join me on a retreat in Costa Rica in February 2025. It was my first international workshop initiated by me. In hindsight, the trip was incredible, and I am very grateful for the relationships forged and the insights catalyzed as a result. But in advance, I was unsure whether it would happen, and even more unsure whether it should happen again. Selling the spots was a grind, the group was smaller than I’d hoped, and the commercial return on investment was limited. It was tempting, BASED ON A SINGLE DATA POINT, to decide that the retreat experiment was a failure.
But the week before the trip, I decided to launch the marketing for the next retreat. Why? Because I knew I needed more data points and because I wanted to influence the shape of the graph! Only trying again would do that.
Ten days ago, we opened early bird registration for Pause in Provence 2026. As I type this, we have ONE ROOM LEFT! We have already sold more spots in ten days than I was able to sell in several months last time.
People told me the retreats would gain momentum. But I knew they didn’t know that for sure, any better than I did. What I did know is that they would never gain momentum if I didn’t host another one, and that it was more useful for me to believe the attendance trend line would move upward than the opposite.
Is there a “graph” in your life that you are concerned or curious about? Zooming out on it while also leaning into it may be the potent combination you need to turn the curve.
I recently received this sloth mug from Kathryn Nairne — such a thoughtful gift and the perfect reminder of our Costa Rican adventure. I look forward to making new memories together in Provence!